The Guardian article this week that disclosed the story of U.S. eavesdropping on the leaders of several US allies said that the surveillance produced "little reportable intelligence."  This isn't really a surprise -- I can't really imagine that listening to German...
The commentary on Edward Snowden over the past several days and the various discussions on dissent, resignations, and whistleblowing have given me a lot to think about. Â I'll leave discussion of the...
Michael Horowitz and Philip Tetlock have an interesting piece in Foreign Policy that examines the record on long-range forecasting of global events -- 15 - 20 years into the future. They acknowledge...
 This is a guest post by Michael C. Horowitz, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania.Who can see the future? For us mere mortals, it’s hard, even for so-called...
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has declared war on current speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Why? Well, Gingrich says Pelosi lied when she claimed that the CIA withheld information from her about waterboarding in 2002 briefings.Here's Gingrich on Fox News, May 17: I was really surprised and even stunned by her comments yesterday, where she alleged that the American intelligence agencies routinely lied to the Congress. I know it's false. I know that it demeans every person who's working to defend this country....I think Speaker Pelosi's in enormous trouble. I think that lying to...
Over the weekend, the AP ran a story based on high-level Israeli sources suggesting that Iran's nuclear program has "crossed the threshold," which implied that the program is now militarized: Iran is now capable of producing atomic weapons, Israel's top military intelligence officer said Sunday, sounding the highest-level warning that Israel's archenemy has achieved independent nuclear capability.At a Cabinet meeting, the chief of military intelligence, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, did not say Iran already has an atomic bomb, participants said. However, he said, Iran has "crossed the threshold"...
Leon Panetta was named to head the CIA today.Its a surprise move, as no one had Panetta on any lists for a major appointment, and many were looking for someone with "intelligence experience" to head the CIA. While Panetta has never worked in the IC, he was a Congressman, head of OMB, and Chief of Staff to the president. The top thing Panetta seemingly had going for him? His strong stance against torture and the distance he provides from Bush Administration policies. Its now well documented that he wrote in the Washington Monthly that "We cannot and we must not use torture under any...
In the post- 9-11, post Iraq world of Intelligence and policy, the great hue and cry has been that the US needs better Human Intelligence. To that end, the Intelligence Reform act created the National Clandestine Service out of the CIA's old Directorate of Operations, in an attempt to beef up our human intelligence capability.Joseph Weisberg, writing in the Washington Post, raises an interesting and provocative argument:Although we dedicate enormous resources to recruiting "human sources," there just aren't many good ones available. The central problem is that the people who actually know...
By now you've probably read about the new NIE saying that Iran almost certainly halted its nuclear weapons program some time in 2003. There are, of course, bound to be people who disagree with this assessment--after all, it is an "estimate", which is another way of saying "our best guess". Although the report indicates varying levels of confidence associated with each piece of the report, it's not like we know for sure. Disagreeing with some parts of the report (or even the entire report) is a legitimate position.However, I am disappointed that the New York Times would published an op-ed...
I'm curious what our readers make of the newly declassified part of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE): "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" [pdf]. In particular, its claim that:We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear...