by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
... Big news just came down the pike. Courtesy of a friend, I learn that Poland has agreed to host US ballistic-missile defenses. As geopolitical lines harden, the question becomes if Russia's actions will drive a wedge between NATO members that embrace a harder or a softer line towards Russia. Or will balance-of-threat dynamics lead to renewed NATO cohesion? I suspect the answer is far from preordained: a great deal depends on how US and...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
Despite some noises to the contrary, the Russians remain in control of Gori and Poti. Tony Halpin reports in the Times that Russian and Georgian forces almost exchanged fire in Gori, but that on-the-ground negotiations continue:Russian and Georgian troops came close to a fire-fight today as a tense stand-off developed over the continued occupation of the strategic city of Gori.As the first US humanitarian aid arrived in Georgia, Condoleezza...
by Charli Carpenter | 14 Aug 2008 |
The latest on atrocity allegations between the parties to the smoldering conflict in the Caucasus, from the New York Times:In South Ossetia, investigators began to look into accusations of atrocities. Human Rights Watch reported that researchers witnessed “terrifying scenes of destruction” in four ethnic Georgian villages, and said the villages had been looted and burned by South Ossetian militias.Some thoughts: I'm happy to see a joint like...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
Now that a number of media outlets and independent groups have gained access to key locations in Georgia and South Ossetia, some aspects of the last few days, as well as the current situation, are starting to come into focus.Steven Lee Myers' report in the International Herald Tribute, for example, suggests strongly that: (1) Russian accusations of Georgian atrocities were greatly exaggerated; (2) the Russians--or at least their South Ossetian...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
Douthat comments on Max Boot's call for the US to, if necessary, turn Georgia into the next Afghanistan (circa 1984).Now these arguments have a certain surface plausibility, but I would find them much more convincing if Boot were not simultaneously arguing that Russia's ambitions (and capabilities) run as follows: "Today, Georgia; tomorrow, Ukraine; the day after, Estonia?" It's hard for me to believe that Putin's Russia is both an aggressive,...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
I ended my last post with the words:While I think it is far too soon for those of us reading media accounts to pass judgment, many of these accusations are extremely troubling. The Europeans and the US need to continue to make clear that both Russia and Georgia must immediately comply with the letter and spirit of the truce.President Bush, in fact, made a very strong statement earlier today:President Bush said Wednesday he is skeptical that...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
Many reports indicate that Russian forces are headed toward Tblisi:A Russian military convoy thrust deep into Georgia on Wednesday and Georgian officials said Russian troops bombed and looted the crossroads city of Gori, violating a freshly brokered truce intended to end the conflict. In the west, Georgia's weakened military acknowledged its soldiers had pulled out entirely from Abkhazia, leaving both breakaway regions at the heart of the...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
Two good articles on the US role in Georgia. The first, by Helene Cooper and Thom Shanker of the New York Times: "After Mixed U.S. Messages, a War Erupted in Georgia."One month ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi, Georgia, for a high-profile visit that was planned to accomplish two very different goals.During a private dinner on July 9, Ms. Rice’s aides say, she warned President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia not to get...
by Peter | 13 Aug 2008 |
With the Confrontation in the Caucasus seemingly over, I wanted to try to think through some of the implications for US foreign policy. Although it was a short conflagration, these past 5 days have the feeling of an important turning point. I don’t think that the Confrontation itself has fundamentally altered the nature of International Politics, but rather it seems endemic of a slow shift that had been underway for some time. Though the past...
by Rodger Payne | 12 Aug 2008 |
Just about anyone who follows American foreign policy understands the predictable early U.S. responses to a global crisis. The Navy is asked to dispatch vessels into nearby seas -- thereby signaling American interests, power and resolve. Or so the thinking goes.These deployments are certainly cheaper than direct involvement in a crisis and rarely lead to any kind of active (hostile) U.S. military operations.Since 2001, however, the U.S. has...
by Dan Nexon | 12 Aug 2008 |
[updates after the fold]Recent developments should give everyone their first major reasons for optimism concerning the Russia-Georgia front (and basically bear out Charles Kings' analysis). TimesOnline:President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia today ordered a halt to the invasion of Georgia, minutes before Nicolas Sarkozy arrived in Moscow to try to negotiate a ceasefire. No one has demobilized, and the Georgians suspicious. If a cease-fire is...
by Charli Carpenter | 12 Aug 2008 |
Rodger and Peter remind us that many things are happening out there besides the commotion between Russia and Georgia. For example:Canada has dispatched the naval frigate HMCS Ville de Québec to the waters off the Horn of Africa, in the hopes of stemming pirate attacks that have in recent months drastically curtailed the delivery of humanitarian aid to Somalia’s war-affected masses. It's unclear whether a single additional vessel will be up to...