by Charli Carpenter | 12 Aug 2008 |
Latest numbers on humanitarian needs in the region. International Medical Corps is now echoing the 30,000 estimate of refugees fleeing north to Russia from S. Ossetia, UNHCR's estimates remain more conservative but have risen from 5,000 Saturday to between 10,000-20,000 today.Like other agencies IMC is emphasizing its assistance efforts for "women and children." This is troubling given what it suggests about a) the number of elderly who likely...
by Dan Nexon | 11 Aug 2008 |
I've spent the last few days recoiling at the excesses of the Russian propaganda machine. I still believe that the constant refrains of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing" are absurd, and I'm frustrated by out-and-out falsehoods such as the claim that the western media didn't cover the developing crisis prior to the Russian intervention a few days ago. But I think that this annoyance, in conjunction with my fundamental sympathy for the Georgian...
by Dan Nexon | 11 Aug 2008 |
We all know that Saakashvili made a major miscalculation when he ordered the assault on South Ossetia. Perhaps someday the public will find out what he was really thinking. Did he think, for examples that, he was acting preemptively? But if Adrian Bloomfield's report is correct, then he had better reasons than one might think to misjudge the situation--and the Bush administration has yet another terrible foreign-policy mistake to answer for:Mr...
by Dan Nexon | 11 Aug 2008 |
Notwithstanding the ridiculousness of some of the rhetoric in today's US papers, Russia has clearly stepped over the line in Georgia. Russian commentators, fed by a steady onslaught of their government's propaganda about Georgian "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing," almost certainly will deny it, but the Georgian offensive in South Ossetia--as well as the civilian losses it inflicted and the refugees it created--does not provide a pretext for...
by Dan Nexon | 11 Aug 2008 |
The FSB is claiming that they've captured nine Georgia "special service" agents who were "plotting terrorist attacks" inside Russia.More later.
by Peter | 11 Aug 2008 |
Echoing Rodger, Dan and Charli are doing excellent work on the serious stuff of the day, so here are a few light observations after a few light hours watching some of the Olympics over the weekend.Still President Bush is everywhere--its like he has nothing better to do. He's at the basketball game. Then he's with Misty May and Kerri Walsh, tapping May on the backside. Then he's on for an in-studio interview / commentary session with Bob Costas...
by Dan Nexon | 11 Aug 2008 |
Given the outpouring of hyperbolic rhetoric in US opinion-editorials today (more on this later), some more level-headed commentary is in order. I've already posted on Charles King's excellent CSM editorial; today, James Poulos weighs in in The Guardian:Saakashvili's overheated rhetoric – "If the whole world does not stop Russia," he has remarked, "then Russian tanks will be able to reach any other European capital" – is illustrative of the kind...
by Rodger Payne | 11 Aug 2008 |
I know Dan and Charli have been diligently (and quite helpfully) blogging about war, but it's the weekend and I went to see "Dark Knight" yesterday. After it ended -- and if you've seen it, you probably already know why -- I kept thinking that every Batman and his villain antagonist(s) simply reflect their times. In their own way, they are social constructs. If this is true, what, exactly, is this latest Batman film trying to say about...
by Dan Nexon | 10 Aug 2008 |
My colleague, Charles King, is one of the foremost authorities on the Caucasus in the United States. His take on the conflict appears in tomorrow's Christian Science Monitor:American and European diplomats, who have rushed to the region to try to stop the conflict, would do well to consider the broader effects of this latest round of Caucasus bloodletting – and to seek perspectives on the conflict beyond the story of embattled democracy and...
by Dan Nexon | 10 Aug 2008 |
Early reports suggest that the US UNSC draft resolution condemns the Russians and calls for a return to the status quo prior to the Georgian offensive, a message the US has also publicly delivered through diplomatic channels.This comes as the Georgians insist they've pulled their forces back and call for cease-fire negotiations. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov disputes Georgian claims that their forces have left South Ossetia, the Russians...
by Charli Carpenter | 10 Aug 2008 |
Dan lamented correctly yesterday morning about the paucity of reliable casualty numbers for the conflict in Georgia. Seems this is still the case, with the Washington Post reporting today that "no... casualty figures could be independently confirmed" in an article nonetheless subtitled "Civilian Deaths on Increase In Conflict Over S. Ossetia."But it's actually rather important to try to figure out whether civilians are being targeted, and how...
by Dan Nexon | 10 Aug 2008 |
Sloph on Ukraine's threat to bar the Black Sea Fleet from returning to Sevastopol.Obviously the dithering is over, Ukraine has told Russia it's not allowed to bring its navy back to Sevastopol so clearly theyve dispatched some/all the fleet. Is Russia going to take on Ukraine as well? Having said that, I don't know how you go about stopping a fleet of warships parking wherever the hell they want to.Background: Khrushchev gave the Crimea to his...