by Dan Nexon | 15 Aug 2008 |
This morning the New York Times provides an interesting report on the Russian army and the lawlessness breaking out in the territory they control:The identities of the attackers vary, but a pattern of violence by ethnic Ossetians against ethnic Georgians is emerging and has been confirmed by some Russian authorities. “Now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves,” said Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Nikolaevich Borisov,...
by Dan Nexon | 15 Aug 2008 |
Via email: according to Simon Saradzhyan of the Moscow Times, the Russia-Georgia War revealed the obsolescence of major aspects of the Russian military machine;The technical sophistication of the Russian forces turned out to be inferior in comparison with the Georgian military. While Georgia's armed forces operated Soviet-era T-72 tanks and Su-25 attack planes, both were upgraded with equipment such as night-vision systems to make them...
by Charli Carpenter | 15 Aug 2008 |
Human Rights Watch is reporting evidence that Russia used cluster munitions in populated areas of Georgia, and has traced at least 11 civilian deaths to the weapons, which are considered indiscriminate under international law. "Russian aircraft dropped RBK-250 cluster bombs, each containing 30 PTAB 2.5M submunitions, on the town of Ruisi in the Kareli district of Georgia on August 12, 2008. Three civilians were killed and five wounded in the...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
... Big news just came down the pike. Courtesy of a friend, I learn that Poland has agreed to host US ballistic-missile defenses. As geopolitical lines harden, the question becomes if Russia's actions will drive a wedge between NATO members that embrace a harder or a softer line towards Russia. Or will balance-of-threat dynamics lead to renewed NATO cohesion? I suspect the answer is far from preordained: a great deal depends on how US and...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
Despite some noises to the contrary, the Russians remain in control of Gori and Poti. Tony Halpin reports in the Times that Russian and Georgian forces almost exchanged fire in Gori, but that on-the-ground negotiations continue:Russian and Georgian troops came close to a fire-fight today as a tense stand-off developed over the continued occupation of the strategic city of Gori.As the first US humanitarian aid arrived in Georgia, Condoleezza...
by Charli Carpenter | 14 Aug 2008 |
The latest on atrocity allegations between the parties to the smoldering conflict in the Caucasus, from the New York Times:In South Ossetia, investigators began to look into accusations of atrocities. Human Rights Watch reported that researchers witnessed “terrifying scenes of destruction” in four ethnic Georgian villages, and said the villages had been looted and burned by South Ossetian militias.Some thoughts: I'm happy to see a joint like...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
Now that a number of media outlets and independent groups have gained access to key locations in Georgia and South Ossetia, some aspects of the last few days, as well as the current situation, are starting to come into focus.Steven Lee Myers' report in the International Herald Tribute, for example, suggests strongly that: (1) Russian accusations of Georgian atrocities were greatly exaggerated; (2) the Russians--or at least their South Ossetian...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
Douthat comments on Max Boot's call for the US to, if necessary, turn Georgia into the next Afghanistan (circa 1984).Now these arguments have a certain surface plausibility, but I would find them much more convincing if Boot were not simultaneously arguing that Russia's ambitions (and capabilities) run as follows: "Today, Georgia; tomorrow, Ukraine; the day after, Estonia?" It's hard for me to believe that Putin's Russia is both an aggressive,...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
I ended my last post with the words:While I think it is far too soon for those of us reading media accounts to pass judgment, many of these accusations are extremely troubling. The Europeans and the US need to continue to make clear that both Russia and Georgia must immediately comply with the letter and spirit of the truce.President Bush, in fact, made a very strong statement earlier today:President Bush said Wednesday he is skeptical that...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
Many reports indicate that Russian forces are headed toward Tblisi:A Russian military convoy thrust deep into Georgia on Wednesday and Georgian officials said Russian troops bombed and looted the crossroads city of Gori, violating a freshly brokered truce intended to end the conflict. In the west, Georgia's weakened military acknowledged its soldiers had pulled out entirely from Abkhazia, leaving both breakaway regions at the heart of the...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Aug 2008 |
Two good articles on the US role in Georgia. The first, by Helene Cooper and Thom Shanker of the New York Times: "After Mixed U.S. Messages, a War Erupted in Georgia."One month ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi, Georgia, for a high-profile visit that was planned to accomplish two very different goals.During a private dinner on July 9, Ms. Rice’s aides say, she warned President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia not to get...
by Peter | 13 Aug 2008 |
With the Confrontation in the Caucasus seemingly over, I wanted to try to think through some of the implications for US foreign policy. Although it was a short conflagration, these past 5 days have the feeling of an important turning point. I don’t think that the Confrontation itself has fundamentally altered the nature of International Politics, but rather it seems endemic of a slow shift that had been underway for some time. Though the past...