by Dan Nexon | 16 Aug 2008 |
I received a very thoughtful email on the current chill in US-Russian relations:The timing certainly makes a clear statement, but haven't we basically told the Russians that we are deploying these systems whether they like it or not? At least in public statements, it hasn't seemed like this was even remotely negotiable.Given Lavrov's comments Thursday about WTO membership, it seems like they are willing to write this stuff off--we weren't going...
by Dan Nexon | 16 Aug 2008 |
I have to say that the latest news is not encouraging. Forced labor in South Ossetia? The Georgians claiming, among other accusations that Abkhazians have seized 13 villages and a hydroelectric plant in Georgia proper?In other words, it ain't over until the Red Army Choir sings.On a lighter note, Pravda reports that Saakashvili "clearly" had a nervous breakdown on TV because he "ate his tie." Ahh, the influence of YouTube. (Video below the...
by Dan Nexon | 16 Aug 2008 |
A major newspaper (other than the Christian Science Monitor) in the United States has published a sensible and relatively evenhanded OP-ED on Russia-Georgia. Michael Dobbs:t didn't take long for the "Putin is Hitler" analogies to start following the eruption of the ugly little war between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia. Neoconservative commentator Robert Kagan compared the Russian attack on Georgia with...
by Charli Carpenter | 16 Aug 2008 |
At the Danger Room blog, Nick Thompson claims Russia may be right in calling Georgian behavior "genocide."Over at Complex Terrain Lab, Mike Innes pokes some useful holes in Thompson's argument.I would add to Mike's points that the most important error made by Thompson is mistakenly conflating the intentional killing of civilians with genocide. The intentional killing of civilians in war is a war crime; if carried out en mass (even in peacetime)...
by Dan Nexon | 16 Aug 2008 |
Earlier today, I wrote:Before I leave the office, I just wanted to note that the dynamics between Georgia, Russia, and the United States are very bad right now. A small Russian force has apparently deployed fifteen miles outside of Tblisi, Rice is calling the Russians all sorts of names, and Moscow's pissed about the US-Poland deal. ... oh, and on the analytic front: Rob Farley and Dan Drezner both have interesting things to say about NATO and...
by Dan Nexon | 16 Aug 2008 |
- "Why didn't the Georgians take out the Roki Tunnel?"- "I dunno. Maybe they wanted to keep it open for their planned invasion of Russia..."Image source: Wikipedia
by Dan Nexon | 15 Aug 2008 |
This morning the New York Times provides an interesting report on the Russian army and the lawlessness breaking out in the territory they control:The identities of the attackers vary, but a pattern of violence by ethnic Ossetians against ethnic Georgians is emerging and has been confirmed by some Russian authorities. “Now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves,” said Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Nikolaevich Borisov,...
by Dan Nexon | 15 Aug 2008 |
Via email: according to Simon Saradzhyan of the Moscow Times, the Russia-Georgia War revealed the obsolescence of major aspects of the Russian military machine;The technical sophistication of the Russian forces turned out to be inferior in comparison with the Georgian military. While Georgia's armed forces operated Soviet-era T-72 tanks and Su-25 attack planes, both were upgraded with equipment such as night-vision systems to make them...
by Charli Carpenter | 15 Aug 2008 |
Human Rights Watch is reporting evidence that Russia used cluster munitions in populated areas of Georgia, and has traced at least 11 civilian deaths to the weapons, which are considered indiscriminate under international law. "Russian aircraft dropped RBK-250 cluster bombs, each containing 30 PTAB 2.5M submunitions, on the town of Ruisi in the Kareli district of Georgia on August 12, 2008. Three civilians were killed and five wounded in the...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
... Big news just came down the pike. Courtesy of a friend, I learn that Poland has agreed to host US ballistic-missile defenses. As geopolitical lines harden, the question becomes if Russia's actions will drive a wedge between NATO members that embrace a harder or a softer line towards Russia. Or will balance-of-threat dynamics lead to renewed NATO cohesion? I suspect the answer is far from preordained: a great deal depends on how US and...
by Dan Nexon | 14 Aug 2008 |
Despite some noises to the contrary, the Russians remain in control of Gori and Poti. Tony Halpin reports in the Times that Russian and Georgian forces almost exchanged fire in Gori, but that on-the-ground negotiations continue:Russian and Georgian troops came close to a fire-fight today as a tense stand-off developed over the continued occupation of the strategic city of Gori.As the first US humanitarian aid arrived in Georgia, Condoleezza...
by Charli Carpenter | 14 Aug 2008 |
The latest on atrocity allegations between the parties to the smoldering conflict in the Caucasus, from the New York Times:In South Ossetia, investigators began to look into accusations of atrocities. Human Rights Watch reported that researchers witnessed “terrifying scenes of destruction” in four ethnic Georgian villages, and said the villages had been looted and burned by South Ossetian militias.Some thoughts: I'm happy to see a joint like...