by Rodger Payne | 10 Dec 2007 |
In January, I was skeptical about the prospects for the new Iraq strategy, commonly called "the surge." As everyone knows, the strategy was built around securing Baghdad: The Bush administration asserts that the violence in Iraq, "particularly in Baghdad," has reversed the political gains that were reflected in the 2005 elections. By stabilizing the situation in and around the capital, they assert, the U.S. can help the current government...
by Rodger Payne | 9 Dec 2007 |
Peter has a great post about the meaning of wealth in America -- and the diverse problem that voters making upwards of $97,000 annually pose to the Democratic candidates in the 2008 election campaign.After all, Democrats have long been said to represent the interests of the downtrodden. Think about FDR's "New Deal" or LBJ's "Great Society." Yet, Democratic members now hold many House seats in districts that are viewed as affluent by income...
by Peter | 8 Dec 2007 |
Time for another installment of Ducking the Issues, where we here at the duck take a closer look at issues in the 2008 campaign.David points out an interesting article, reporting a study by the Heritage Foundation that asserts that the Democrats are now the “party of the rich.” When combined with a discussion between Obama and Clinton in a debate in Las Vegas the other week, you end up with an interesting and revealing set of income and class...
by Dan Nexon | 7 Dec 2007 |
Dave Schuler and I are arguing (again) over the counterfactual question: would a Gore Administration have invaded Iraq?. I say, predictably, "no." Dave says, "yes." Weigh in, if so inclined, at his place.
by Charli Carpenter | 7 Dec 2007 |
A conference was recently held at the University of Maastricht on Human Rights and Methodology, which explored the following questions:By which criteria can a product of human rights research be qualified as a methodologically sound piece of work? What are examples of such good practices and what are examples of practices that are unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view? And are there aspects and considerations that are typical for...
by Maia Gemmill | 7 Dec 2007 |
By now you've probably read about the new NIE saying that Iran almost certainly halted its nuclear weapons program some time in 2003. There are, of course, bound to be people who disagree with this assessment--after all, it is an "estimate", which is another way of saying "our best guess". Although the report indicates varying levels of confidence associated with each piece of the report, it's not like we know for sure. Disagreeing with some...
by Rodger Payne | 6 Dec 2007 |
Remember the threat terrorism was supposed to pose to shopping malls? Actually, some of these warnings are quite recent.For years, some have feared that terrorists might go into shopping malls and start killing innocent shoppers or service employees. Often, the warnings are associated with popular holidays like Halloween or Christmas.Here's how Michelle Malkin might handle the latest developments in Omaha -- if she worried about the ready...
by Rodger Payne | 6 Dec 2007 |
University of California, Berkeley, professor Philip Tetlock has won the 2008 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. The prize is worth $200,000.The December 3 Chronicle of Higher Education has a brief piece that explains the rationale for the prize:Predictions on political issues are frequently wrong, says Mr. Tetlock, which is unfortunate because lawmakers frequently rely on such analyses to shape policy. In a 20-year study of...
by Peter | 5 Dec 2007 |
Last week there were two major elections, in Venezuela and Russia, and looking back on them together offers a moment to discuss democracy and US foreign policy of democracy promotion.This allows us to ask the question—are Russia and Venezuela really democracies? The US has been highly critical of Hugo Chavez and his political revolution in Venezuela, and somewhat less critical of Vladimir Putin and his power grab in Russia. Both purport to be...
by Patrick Thaddeus Jackson | 5 Dec 2007 |
[UPDATED -- see last paragraphs below the fold, which take into account Bush's latest comments on Iran.]Startling news out of the American intelligence community today:Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a [nuclear] weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”Hmm. After months, even years, of "Ahmadinejad, like all of those people, is a crazy ideologue who does what he does...
by Peter | 5 Dec 2007 |
And if you just can't get enough, you'll of course want to watch Part II and Part III!
by Dan Nexon | 4 Dec 2007 |
I'm curious what our readers make of the newly declassified part of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE): "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" [pdf]. In particular, its claim that:We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that...