Global heavyweights are debating the seriousness of Iran’s missile tests, and the newly acknowledged plant outside Qum; and what to do about it all. In this context, Bruce Buena de Mesquita‘s predictions on Iran, outlined in his new book The Predictioneer’s Game and reiterated on the Daily Show last night, are worth revisiting.

Buena de Mesquita’s computer model, which is said to be considerably more accurate than the CIA, predicts that Iran will stop after getting to the point where they could test a weapon.

As Jon puts it: “The end game is to prove they can, but then they don’t?

De Mesquita: “Yes.”