It sure looks like it. The good (unreliable) instant polls for Obama are already framing the narrative in an interesting way: given how many pundits called the debate for McCain, the question is why undecided voters saw things differently. This, in conjunction with...
I can't imagine how postponing the Friday debate will have any substantive impact on the nature or character of the bailout negotiations, so I'm going to go with the conventional wisdom and assume...
While I am never one to question the wisdom of the great Yogi Berra, we're starting to get a picture of how this Presidential election will play out--and it looks like Obama is clearly in the...
Complex Terrain Lab is hosting a series of blog posts on the Salim Hamdan trial by Professor Bryan Glyn Williams this week. Williams acted as an expert witness for the defence of Bin Laden's driver,...
I think Nate is doing some of the best analysis of the current electoral map, and today he makes a critical point: despite all the hype and attention that Palin has given to the McCain ticket, the electoral math is for the most part unchanged from the pre-convention period. Palin has brought home those Republicans who didn't really believe McCain was one of them, but the McCain bounce in the polls is greatest in states where he is already popular. As a result, the electoral college math (which is what really matters, so resist the urge to worry about national daily tracking numbers) is...
A friend emails me to say:I just watched video of Saakashvili's press conference with Sarkozy. Still claiming outright that the Russians started it and that the Russians are the invaders. Speaking English, naturally. Russians are of course indignant about this claim. Georgia is like the younger sibling who constantly pokes and prods the older and then runs to mommy to complain when the older eventually hits back. Then when the older gets grounded for hitting, hides behind mommy's legs and sticks his tongue out at the older. Russia's reputation as a bully (plus the fact that mom likes the...
"'Big Bang' Experiment Passes Key TestsLet's see.... No non-metaphorical black holes in Europe yet.Yay!Let's celebrate with some some xkcd....
A fantastic commentary by Troy at Abu Muqawama.If you haven’t seen it already, the New York Times magazine has an excellent article by Dexter Filkins on the Taliban in Pakistan. It is a longer piece, but well worth the read.A fair amount of it covers ground that should be familiar to anyone who has been watching South Asia for the past couple of years: * Taliban factions are in control of Pakistan’s tribal areas * The Pakistan Army and ISI are actually supporting the Taliban while pretending to cooperate with the U.S. to control the militants * By way of example, Sirajuddin Haqqani, the de...
Over the last two days the Presidential campaign imploded. The McCain campaign has gone completely Rovetastic. Obama's caugt a virulent strain of foot-in-mouth disease. And don't get me started on how the Palin pick has provided the media with a perfect excuse to avoid the hard task of talking about, you know, issues and, instead, to focus on triviality.Meanwhile, the emerging contours of the horse race looks pretty much like a repeat of 2000 and 2004, with any net bump for McCain over Obama already gone from every national poll except for Gallup's political crack daily tracking poll.I can't...
North Korea often seems more than just Another Country, it often seems like another planet. It remains one of the most closed, authoritarian, and militarized states on the planet, and it is impossibly difficult to penetrate from a scholarly, cultural, diplomatic, or intelligence angle. As a result, many North Korea analysts are left to play Pyongyang-ology, parsing nuance in official statements, relying on tibits from the few outsiders and diplomats who are allowed into the country, and passive intelligence gathering platforms.Kim Jong-Il has been off the public stage for a while, but today...
I'm sorry, but I simply couldn't help but post this.* *My willingness to make fun of Sarah Palin should in no way be construed as an endorsement of some members of my party's more appalling rhetoric toward her and her daughter, which I frankly have found an embarrassment over the past eleven days. There are many good reasons to not want her at the country's helm; her commitment to her family and her daughter's exercise of her choice as a woman (a responsible one, you might even say) are certainly not among them.
Dan previously reported that the European Union decided not to impose economic sanctions on Russia -- at least for now. However, The New York Times had an interesting story on September 3 noting that the market was imposing its own penalty on Russia for its war versus Georgia....[I}nvestors are also unnerved by the aftermath of the five-day war in early August.Russian shares have lost about a third of their value since hitting record highs in May. Russian and Western bank analysts polled by Reuters have cut forecasts for Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves.As much as $25 billion in...