The Duck of Minerva

The Duck Quacks at Twilight

Nate Silver on Iranian Elections

June 14, 2009

Nate analyzes some statistical analysis claiming to show fraud in Friday’s elections. Short story, he is not buying the analysis (as the results are mostly an artifact of how the numbers were released), nor is he discounting the possibility that it occurred (which, I would say, is more than reasonable).

Rob Farley links to a nice summary regarding what’s in the air regarding the dimensions of the ‘political coup’. Part of this, if true, shows an attempt to cover up data that would more than suggest outright fraud.

Still waiting for a reliable statistical model of estimated electoral fraud. Even if we had one, it appears the authorities in Iran are intent on withholding the inputs necessary for such a model.

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"Randy Waterhouse" is a pseudonym.