Well it’s been just over two weeks since the Canadian Election – and I am much overdue for the long promised third installment of the snoozefest series that I started. In some ways I’m glad I waited to write my reply: first, because I was contemplating throwing myself off of Tower Bridge. In a moment of panic on the morning after the election I formed the Government of Canada in Exile (please join!) but I think I have calmed down now and have a new appreciation for the UK visa renewal process. Second, because I wanted to actually spend some time thinking about the implication of Canada’s first majority government since 2006.
So, what did I think?
Basically nothing. I actively ignored it. I’ve been bogged down with exams, international affairs (that OBL thing) and not quite willing to face up to the fact that Canada just handed this guy a majority mandate.
So, what am I making up off of the top of my head?
Canada before/after 2011 election
(For the too long/didn’t read crowd, this graphic should sum up everything up nicely.)
Finally, and perhaps the best news for Canadian nationalists since “money and the ethnic vote” helped keep the nation together, the Bloc Qubecois were completely decimated – going from 54 to 4 (FOUR!) seats. My extremely superficial comment on this would be that you can only be a one trick pony for so long, BQ; People want other things too.
Oh, and Elizabeth May, (a Yankee!!!) the leader of Canada’s Green Party, won a seat , but the party did not do well overall as progressives apparently lined up to vote for the NDP instead.
A couple of interesting things here
Our new Official Opposition
Harper won his majority government with 40% of the vote. The split ‘left’ vote (now into three parties: Liberal – though there are centre-right Liberals as well – NDP , Green) may mean that Conservatives will have an advantage to come…
…so long as Harper can keep his party together. While he did not have a majority, he had an excuse not to move on socially conservative legislation. We’ll see if he does now. Certainly, I think we can expect foreign funding for issues that social conservatives do not like (birth control, abortions, etc) to be cut further as a pacifying measure. However, last week there was a large demonstration against abortion rights on Parliament Hill (admittedly an annual event). To what extent will Harper listen to these individuals (many from the west) in his caucus? An article in the Globe and Mail pointed out that Harper now has more MPs from Ontario than Alberta – will he have to take (more libertarian) Ontario more seriously now?
Many of the new NDP candidates are just as surprised to be elected as many Canadians are to see them. It seems quite clear that many figured they did not really stand a chance in the election – particularly in Quebec. Yet, with the “Layton surge”, they have found themselves wisked into the House of Commons with some interesting results: a) Several of the candidates are university students (some who have been taught by co-Duck blogger Steven Saideman at McGill). Canada just elected its youngest MPs – it will be the first time that those under 25 will be so well represented… although all in the Opposition benches. b) To show you how bizarre the situation has become, we have the story of Ruth Ellen Brosseau. Don’t let the French name fool you! Despite the fact that she represents what seems to be an entirely francophone district, she doesn’t actually speak French. She may actually have never been to the ridding (electoral district for you who keep asking me what a ridding is and saying “that’s so cute”. >:-( ) and she spent much of the election in Las Vegas. While she’s already been a focal-point of criticism, I think this story implies much that might happen in the next Parliament…
It’s Amateur Hour. And that might be a good and bad thing. The bad is obviously that the NDP has never had to be ‘responsible’ before in a national government. They’re not going to know the ‘ins’ and ‘outs’ of the system in the same way that, say, the Liberals do. They have many new people and Layton is going to have to organize a shadow cabinet for the first time that represents Canada. There are going to be a lot of mistakes made. That being said, the good is that these new individuals are going to be full of enthusiasm. They are not career politicians, but fresh faces of people who were hopefully motivated for the right reasons. Perhaps this means that they are going to do a good job of holding the government to account. While experience is valuable, things can also get stale.
The long and painful Liberal demise. I don’t have enough time, space, hair-to-pull-out to go into a lengthy discussion here. (Check out Taylor Owen and Dave Eaves on this, he’s had some earlier op-eds too.) Needless to say, the party needs to find a balance between starting from ground zero and drawing on past traditions that have brought the party success. Good luck with that.
For those of us who are (admittedly) anti-Harper (I’m guessing you’ve already figured that out), it may not be as bad as it seems. There was a lot of speculation that Harper might calm down once he got the majority government he craved. (This was the opinion of the Economist, and Globe and Mail.) He might. Apparently we’re back to calling the government the “Government of Canada” rather than “the Harper Government”. That’s nice. I hear Mubarak-style branding ain’t going very well anyways.
Additionally, beside the NDP, the Tories elected some new and interesting MPs – in particular Chris Alexander, the former UN-Representative and foreign affairs wunderkind. I only briefly met him once when he gave a talk in London, but those who know him better than I say very good things about him.
Yet after yesterday’s cabinet was unveiled, it’s clear that Harper has just kept pretty much everyone in the same place. Including – shockingly – Minister of International Cooperation Bev Oda in place. (Not much space here to go into the story – suffice to say she was found guilty of lying to Parliament, political interference into an evaluation process and really just being terrible.) Given that he has elected talent like Alexander, I find this HUGELY disappointing. My only hope is that he wants to get Alexander warmed up in his job as MP before he receives a government position in the next shuffle, probably in 12-18 months.
Stephanie Carvin is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Her research interests are in the area of international law, security, terrorism and technology. Currently, she is teaching in the areas of critical infrastructure protection, technology and warfare and foreign policy.
Stephanie holds a PhD from the London School of Economics and published her thesis as Prisoners of America’s Wars: From the Early Republic to Guantanamo (Columbia/Hurst, 2010). Her most recent book is Science, Law, Liberalism and the American Way of Warfare: The Quest for Humanity in Conflict” (Cambridge, 2015) co-authored with Michael J. Williams. In 2009 Carvin was a Visiting Scholar at George Washington University Law School and worked as a consultant to the US Department of Defense Law of War Working Group. From 2012-2015, she was an analyst with the Government of Canada focusing on national security issues.