by Randy Waterhouse | 16 Jun 2009 |
The news yesterday that the Iranian Guardian Council has ordered what amounts to an inquiry into certain disputed ballots may at first glance appear as a positive development. However, it is not at all clear that simply recounting certain ballots is going to truly reconcile the apparent disparity between the expected results and the actual results. I would posit that right now you have the leadership in Iran scrambling to send signals both...
by Charli Carpenter | 16 Jun 2009 |
... a mechanism existed by which citizens of countries around the world could weigh in on the elections of a particular country, proportional to that country's impact on their country's politics, as computed by some impartial international authority, and actually have their opinions count for something?
by Dan Nexon | 16 Jun 2009 |
I apparently missed the memo, because I only just discovered that the right-wing chattering class is accusing the Obama Administration of "moral cowardice" because it won't hand Ahmadinejad and his associates a rhetorical loaded gun to use against the opposition.I don't know what's most annoying about this kind of accusation.1. Is it the narrow parochialism of people who just don't understand that some foreign populations react poorly to the...
by Dan Nexon | 16 Jun 2009 |
From a recent article on social-science methodology:For example, gravity is a trivial necessary cause of revolution, because gravity is simply always present regardless of whether or not a revolution happens.Clearly, not everyone in my field is a science-fiction fan.nb: someone has suggested to me that the authors mean "revolution" as in "Venus revolves around the Sun." But gravity is certainly not a non-trivial cause of such revolution; given...
by Dan Nexon | 15 Jun 2009 |
Today's rally in Tehran was, by all accounts, truly massive. Now the BBC reports the security forces pro-Ahmadinejad militia members opened fire on at least some of its participants. I may have been premature in my assessment of the regime's ability to disrupt collective mobilization against it by targeting vectors of communication among members of the active opposition. With a united opposition still capable of turning out large numbers of...
by Dan Nexon | 15 Jun 2009 |
Today Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered an investigation into allegations of vote fraud in the presidential election as "tens of thousands" of pro-Mousavi protesters took to the streets in a so-far peaceful march. The march suggests that despite the government's extensive attempts to disrupt counter-regime mobilization, opposition leaders and ordinary people are making headway in coordinating their activities. I still...
by Dan Nexon | 15 Jun 2009 |
Mark Beissinger, in a fantastic article entitled "Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions" (abstract), develops an account of what he terms "modular revolutions":In the study of collective action, the notion of modularity has often been applied to the borrowing of mobilizational frames, repertoires, or modes of contention across cases. The revolutions that have materialized...
by Randy Waterhouse | 14 Jun 2009 |
Nate analyzes some statistical analysis claiming to show fraud in Friday's elections. Short story, he is not buying the analysis (as the results are mostly an artifact of how the numbers were released), nor is he discounting the possibility that it occurred (which, I would say, is more than reasonable).Rob Farley links to a nice summary regarding what's in the air regarding the dimensions of the 'political coup'. Part of this, if true, shows an...
by Dan Nexon | 13 Jun 2009 |
I agree with Josh Tucker that Iran doesn't really fit the major categories of regime-type au currant in comparative politics, but, as I also suggest in comments, we should only lose sleep over that if we treat analytic types as filing boxes for cases rather than, say, as ideal-typifications. Still, if the analysis I'm seeing from reliable sources (and I, like Randy, have no idea what to make of the election outcome in Iran), it does seem that...
by Randy Waterhouse | 13 Jun 2009 |
Given the recently held presidential elections in Iran, and the claims from each candidate that they won the election, I am wondering if it is possible to reliably estimate the amount of voter fraud in favor of one candidate. At the very least, can we reliably estimate the amount of fraud perpetrated by the incumbent, who naturally has the advantage in terms of infrastructure and resources at their disposal? I honestly don't know and have never...
by Dan Nexon | 12 Jun 2009 |
Via sitemeter I recently found my way to IPE at UNC. Which leads me to wonder: I know there's a fairly robust subculture of security blogs--and camps within that subculture, such as COIN and nG Warfare* blog communities--but what about IPE?*With n equaling a value between four and six, inclusive.
by Randy Waterhouse | 12 Jun 2009 |
Tobias Harris over at Observing Japan, weighs in on the discussion regarding Japanese balancing (or lack thereof). Harris' post is an excellent addition to the discussion and includes some excellent points that require me to clarify my original post. And away we go...1) Tobias is correct that given the current and likely current state of the DPRK they are not exactly a Gilpin-esque revisionist power. However, I don't think that a state must...