by Rodger Payne | 6 Dec 2007 |
University of California, Berkeley, professor Philip Tetlock has won the 2008 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. The prize is worth $200,000.The December 3 Chronicle of Higher Education has a brief piece that explains the rationale for the prize:Predictions on political issues are frequently wrong, says Mr. Tetlock, which is unfortunate because lawmakers frequently rely on such analyses to shape policy. In a 20-year study of...
by Peter | 5 Dec 2007 |
Last week there were two major elections, in Venezuela and Russia, and looking back on them together offers a moment to discuss democracy and US foreign policy of democracy promotion.This allows us to ask the question—are Russia and Venezuela really democracies? The US has been highly critical of Hugo Chavez and his political revolution in Venezuela, and somewhat less critical of Vladimir Putin and his power grab in Russia. Both purport to be...
by Patrick Thaddeus Jackson | 5 Dec 2007 |
[UPDATED -- see last paragraphs below the fold, which take into account Bush's latest comments on Iran.]Startling news out of the American intelligence community today:Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a [nuclear] weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”Hmm. After months, even years, of "Ahmadinejad, like all of those people, is a crazy ideologue who does what he does...
by Peter | 5 Dec 2007 |
And if you just can't get enough, you'll of course want to watch Part II and Part III!
by Dan Nexon | 4 Dec 2007 |
I'm curious what our readers make of the newly declassified part of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE): "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" [pdf]. In particular, its claim that:We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that...
by Dan Nexon | 2 Dec 2007 |
Via scatterplot, an on-line mathematics journal for rejected papers. Joke? They say not. And the idea, even if Swiftian, makes a great deal of sense. Maybe the time is ripe in Political Science? Given the vagaries of peer review, and the black hole of bottom-tier journals, I think so.
by Dan Nexon | 30 Nov 2007 |
Maia blogged on the curious situation in Russia. Despite Putin's and United Russia's overwhelming popularity, the government seems intent on ensuring an even more crushing victory for the party. Now Luke Harding and Tom Parfitt of The Guardian report on major "fraud, intimidation, and bribery" in the run up to the election.They also offer some possible answers as to why the Russian government seems intent on manipulating an election that United...
by Charli Carpenter | 29 Nov 2007 |
Daniel Howden's piece in The Independent yesterday describes the ongoing furor over the sentencing of a gang-rape victim in Saudi Arabia to 200 lashes for speaking out about the crime. The 19-year old victim was originally sentenced to 90 lashes for being with a non-related male; the sentence was increased because she spoke out to the Saudi media during her appeal.The fact that the Saudi government is now reviewing the case is a testament to...
by Dan Nexon | 29 Nov 2007 |
A quick note on the CNN/YouTube Debate.Although the point is rather obvious, I think it is worth reflecting on how whe exchange between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney about illegal immigration encapsulates fundamental tensions in this country, and within the Republican party, on the issue.Recall that Romnney attacked Giuliani for running a "sanctuary city." Giuliani rejected the the label but also went on the offensive:It's unfortunate, but Mitt...
by Charli Carpenter | 29 Nov 2007 |
Greetings, all. Though I think Daniel hoped my early posts would concern mass killing (or, perhaps, the conquest of the Alpha Quadrant), I couldn’t help but comment on CNN’s Republican YouTube debate for my inaugural post.Mainly, I wonder how different the debate would have been if the 35 questions aired had been chosen based on YouTube page views and comments, rather than selected by the media elite to fit the issues the candidates were...
by Rodger Payne | 29 Nov 2007 |
Today, I received an email asking me to endorse the Iraqi International Initiative for Refugees. Basically, the sponsors want to convince the UN to mandate that Iraqi oil revenues be shared with the 4.5 million refugees and displaced persons dispersed throughout the Middle East and the world. Many are living in poverty in neighboring states.Here is their argument in a nutshell:The international community, the occupation powers, and the...
by Dan Nexon | 28 Nov 2007 |
I wanted to announce the birth of a new Duck. R. Charli Carpenter, an Assistant Professor at the University of Pittsburgh, is joining our ranks for a poorly defined, and perhaps indefinite, guest stint. Professor Carpenter is a specialist in, among other things, transnational advocacy networks, particularly those involved in war crimes and human rights.She is the author of Innocent Women And Children: Gender, Norms And the Protection of...