I've been fairly prolific lately. This state of affairs stems, in part, from what I've been working on for the last couple days: copy editing page proofs, which amounts to one of the dullest things I've done in furtherance of my career. Ever. Moreover, as I'm sure is...
Russia, NATO, Georgia, the Abkhaians... everyone, sensing the final draw-down of the immediate crisis, is trying to, variously, make sense of what it all means, maximize their long-term position, or...
I thought that it would be a good idea to provide a consolidated list of:1. Older Duck posts on the conflict with significant "original" analytic content2. Recent non-Georgia posts that might have...
I received a very thoughtful email on the current chill in US-Russian relations:The timing certainly makes a clear statement, but haven't we basically told the Russians that we are deploying these...
Rob Farley writes a very thoughtful post where he lays out his take, for the moment, on the Russia-Georgia conflict. Indeed, he leaves me feeling a bit embarrassed, as my own writing this afternoon was pretty inelegant.To be a bit less muddled, I am less sympathetic to the Georgian case because I think that escalating the war (and providing an excuse for Russian counter-escalation) was a damn stupid thing for Saakashvili to do, and a remarkably damn stupid thing for him to do absent an extremely compelling cause. Small, weak states living next to abrasive, unpredictable great powers need to...
The first official U.S. statement on the escalating conflict backs Georgia and calls for cease fire:"We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia's territorial integrity, and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a statement.Rice issued her statement as Georgia, a former Soviet state that now wants to join NATO, said it would declare martial law and battled to get control of the rebel enclave, which was fortified by Russian forces.Georgia said Russian fighter jets bombed container...
I just received today's Eurasia Daily Monitor from the Jamestown Foundation. Its writers and editorial staff are unabashedly pro-Georgia and anti-Russia. Unsurprisingly, their analysts see things a bit differently. Pavel Felgenhauer warned recently that South Ossetia was trying to provoke Russian intervention. Today, Vladimir Socor writes:As anticipated (see EDM, July 11, August 4) Moscow has initiated an offensive military operation by proxy against Georgia in South Ossetia. Although the blow had been expected in upper Abkhazia and may yet materialize there, Russia shifted the direction of...
As I noted below, the situation is developing fast.[UPDATE: Bloomberg reports:Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said ``war has started'' over the breakaway region of South Ossetia as Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili accused its neighbor of a ``well-planned invasion.''Saakashvili said in a Bloomberg Television interview that his nation of 4.6 million people is ``fighting to secure its borders'' amid a ``full-blown military aggression'' involving thousands of Russian troops. Aerial bombings and wide-spread fighting in and around the region killed an unknown number of civilians and...
Over a year ago MG wrote: "if you want to put money on a hot war somewhere in the near-abroad, I'd advise you to give considerably more attention to relations between Russia and Georgia."After the Georgian attack on South Ossetia, Georgia and Russia are at, or already over, the precipice.Anne Barnard and Andrew Kramer of The New York Times: Russia sent troops rolling into South Ossetia on Friday, after Georgian troops attacked the capital of the breakaway enclave and shot at Russian planes, in a sharp escalation of the conflict.Georgian officials said their military had fired on Russian...
The Abkhazia plan proposed by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has been getting close to zero press in the United States. Which may be appropriate. As a Kommersant headline sums it up: "Russia Signs On to German Plan, After Abkhazia Rejects It."Russia has given high marks to the plan for a Georgian-Abkhazian settlement proposed by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and called it “conceptually absolutely correct.” That practical support from Moscow for Germany’s intermediary efforts comes immediately after the plan was rejected by Abkhazia and was a sensational...
My offhand comment about Jaap de Hoop Scheffer's warnings to Russia over its increased activity in Abkhazia has, thanks to Rob Farley, produced some interesting commentary.Matthew Yglesias fails to sugar coat his take:It would be appallingly stupid for the United States or our other key allies to put anything whatsoever on the line for the sake of Georgia's efforts to reassert control over its rebellious province. The question of maintaining a good relationship with an important country, Russia, versus standing up for the independence of Russia's neighbors poses some tough dilemmas. But when...
Our US readers might be surprised to learn that there are, in fact, happenings not associated with the 2008 Presidential race. So I thought I would point out that:• Sudan is on the brink of renewed war between the north and south.• NATO has issued checks that it probably can't cash regarding the Georgia-Russia "cold" conflict over Abkhazia.• Zimbabwe's "free and fair" second-round elections continue to be, uh, not so free and fair.And in the "someone is wrong on the internet" category, we return to the US Presidential race:The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has just wrapped up what it...