That one can pose a rational model that predicts preventive war does not make it the right model or necessarily do justice to the facts of the case.
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Time to Put “Dying to Win” out to Pasture?
This is a guest post by Peter S. Henne. Peter received his PhD from Georgetown University in May 2013, and was a Fellow at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia during 2012-2013; he is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. His research focuses on religion and foreign policy; he has also written on terrorism and religious conflict. In his latest blog post...
Déjà Vu in Zimbabwe
Polling stations are opening in Zimbabwe, and, if one's Facebook feed is to be believed, some enthusiastic voters have already spent a few hours queueing (and winter mornings in Zimbabwe are *cold*). Today's elections are notable for a few reasons: they're the first elections since extensive state-sponsored violence in 2008; they mark the formal end of the coalition government inaugurated in the aftermath of that violence; and they are the...
Guantanamo in the Rearview Mirror
Here at the Duck and elsewhere, there has been much discussion of the gaps between academia and the policy world. I took part in a program that seeks to bridge that gap--the Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship--which I have mentioned here before. One thing I did not discuss here before is that such experiences can put one in morally challenging situations. Whenever Guantanamo comes up in the news, I am reminded of...
What Caused the Iraq War? A Debate (Part I)
Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Alexandre Debs and Nuno P. Monteiro, both of Yale University. In it, they discuss the causes of the Iraq War, a subject of some recent discussion at The Duck of Minerva. This post discusses their forthcoming International Organization article, which is now available as an "online first" piece and will be free to download for the next two weeks. Tomorrow we will run a response by David...
Tiwesdæg: the Left-hand of Linkage
Discussion has picked up again on Elizabeth Saunders' guest post, "How Would Al Gore Have Fought the Iraq War." I think it worth clarifying that Elizabeth's piece does, as I read it, two things. First, it extends the debate by asking, in essence, "if we believe that parallel-universe President Gore would have launched an attack against Iraq, what would that war have been like?" She concludes that it might have been better prosecuted than the...
Ducklings!
I am delighted to report that Steve Saideman, Robert Kelly and Megan MacKenzie will be joining the ranks of permanent Duck contributors as of today. This leaves room for new guest bloggers: Stacie Goddard, Johannes Urpelainen and Jillian Schwedler. Stacie Goddard joins us from Wellesley College where she teaches international conflict, specializing in diplomacy, security studies, weapons and war and network politics. She is the author of...
Monday Morning Linkage
Good morning! Here's your linkage... Atul Gawande asks why do some medical ideas (i.e. norms) spread quickly and others slowly? Thomas Rutig re-examines whether lessons can be learnt between the conflicts in Afghanistan and Mali. Udai Bhanu Singh assesses the Bodh Gaya terrorist attack. If you thought Bangladesh's garment industry had problems, perhaps you ought to look at its ship breaking industry. Life expectancy in this industry is...
Fun with Abortion Polls
Two recent polls on abortion provide yet another demonstration of lack of adequate care in designing and reporting on polling results. Conservatives are furious about a Washington Post poll for its wording of questions concerning recent efforts to restrict abortions. The objection? That the question on abortion clinics biases the poll outcome. Obviously, the Post didn't have the courage to ask the question honestly. Had they, it would have...
Friday Morning Linkage
Sissi's call for massive pro-coup demonstrations in Cairo today is a risky move. Why did he do it? Steve Negus looks for answers. The logistics of cutting military aid to Egypt. It's not easy. Cutting aid to the UN though? We'll see. The House and Senate really are at odds over State and Foreign Operations appropriations. Still getting our money's worth in Afghanistan -- $2 billion in waste, fraud and abuse in the last three months...
Friday Nerd Blogging: Poly-Superman
Of course, Brandon Routh really peaked in Scott Pilgrim as a Vegan-powered supervillain, but he is pretty good here as well: Where is Tom Welling when you need him?
Bayes, Stereotyping, and Rare Events
Sadly, many people do not realize that even if the majority of those who engage in behavior X belong to category Y, that does not mean that the majority of people in category Y engage in X. This point is often made, rightly, with respect to race and violent crime and religion and terror. But most treatments I've seen either imply that anyone who doesn't understand is a moron, or manage to scare away the target audience by throwing in a pile...