Even if the new sanctions against Iran prove effective at stopping an Iranian bomb, security analysts will not be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Eben Harrell in Time, April 8, 2010, explained the global distribution of highly enriched uranium: All told, over several decades, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council distributed some 44,000 lbs. (20,000 kg) of HEU — enough for 800 nuclear weapons — to around 50 countries as...
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Sanctioning Iran
I just heard a radio discussion in which two pundits debated whether or not today's sanctions will trigger a reversal in Iran's nuclear program. The focus of the conversation was single cause = single effect -- the sanctions either will or will not be successful gauged solely against the one criteria. Obviously, that criteria is the most significant. But, like most policy instruments, sanctions are a complicated tool. I've been influenced most...
The Revolution will be televised
A powerful new music video remembering Neda.
Developments in the Longest War
Here is my list of some of the most important developments and trends that have occurred so far in the longest war in American history.10. The term "Neo-Taliban" was coined in 2003 (by the Economist magazine) to describe the insurgency that emerged after the US toppled the Taliban regime. However, the distinction between the Paleo-Taliban and the Neo-Taliban is mainly a shift in organization from a highly centralized government to a...
Does Democracy hinder economic growth?
Riz Khan from Al Jazeera is asking the question today. This is always a question that triggers enormous debate among my students. Many tend to jump on the "look at China" or "look at Chile under Pinochet" bandwagon as evidence that autocratic governments are better at imposing the level of discipline necessary to trigger and sustain economic growth. Michael McFaul's new book Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We should and How We Can has an...
What If Political Scientists Wrote the News?
From Christpher Beam at Slate:A powerful thunderstorm forced President Obama to cancel his Memorial Day speech near Chicago on Monday—an arbitrary event that had no affect on the trajectory of American politics.Obama now faces some of the most difficult challenges of his young presidency: the ongoing oil spill, the Gaza flotilla disaster, and revelations about possibly inappropriate conversations between the White House and candidates for...
RIP, Home
I don't have a lot to say intellectually about the BP oil spill... others can do that perhaps more coherently. But between Hurricane Ivan and the oil washing up, the town I grew up in ...well, is a very different place. There's a sense of decenteredness that comes with that, and I got to thinking ...maybe that's just a small little piece of what a lot of people in conflict zones and disaster areas feel every day. Maybe. So even in the...
Tapping into the Tea Party sentiment to close Guantanamo
Can't generate sufficient public support for closing Guantanamo on legal and moral grounds? The Washington Post takes another tack -- your taxpayer dollars at work. The UPI picks up the report here and I bet this will make the lead in every local and regional newspaper around the country in the morning. Among the highlights: $683k to upgrade Starbucks and $773k for interior decoration of KFC/Taco Bell. Domestic mobilization on foreign policy...
Peace Jirga
The Karzai regime's three day "National Consultative Peace Jirga" is now concluded. As expected, the 1,400 member Jirga (and 200 guests) decided to proceed with a plan to offer amnesty to the Taliban and Hizb-i-Islami -- i.e. yes, the same groups which were firing rockets at the Jirga tent. The Taliban have made it quite clear that they have no desire to negotiate an end to hostilities until foreign forces leave. So it is unlikely that the...
War and the Economy
Two somewhat parallel stories have emerged, one from Europe the other from the Americas, about political leaders who believe that war fighting may be necessary for a strong economy. First, according to the Guardian:In a radio interview given on his return from a tour of German military bases in Afghanistan earlier this month, Köhler, a former head of the International Monetary Fund, said that the largely pacifist German public was finally...
Belligerence 101: North Korea options
First, from the archives: Vice President Dick Cheney was quoted by Hamish McDonald, "Cheney's tough talking derails negotiations with North Korea," Sydney Morning Herald, December 22, 2003: The Knight-Ridder newspaper chain said a senior official had quoted Mr Cheney as telling the meeting: "I have been charged by the President with making sure that none of the tyrannies in the world are negotiated with. We don't negotiate with evil; we defeat...
On the Israeli Convoy Raid – briefly
I wanted to write/post something about the Israeli-Turkish ship incident but this post here on Information Dissemination pretty much sums up everything I wanted to say: the attack was legal… but this doesn’t mean it was in any way intelligent or a clever thing to do. (Hat tip to LGM's Robert Farley's Twitter for pointing out the post.)Drezner also has a post on this last point (ie: that it wasn’t really clever) at FP and brings up the the North...