Via Think Progress: Kristol Suggests People of Iran Would Embrace U.S. Attack, Triggering Regime ChangeLet's see, where did I hear that one before--oh wait, I got it--Bill Kristol!February 2nd, 2002:The larger question with respect to Iraq, as with Afghanistan, is what happens after the combat is concluded. The Iraqi opposition lacks the military strength of the Afghan Northern Alliance; however, it claims a political legitimacy that might even...

It would appear that many conservatives have finally grown weary enough of the administration’s approach to foreign policy that they are beginning to make themselves heard. I agree with them on the basic point—the Iraq campaign made the US weaker and demonstrates that everyday. From the Washington Post:“Conservatives complain that the United States is hunkered down in Iraq without enough troops or a strategy to crush the insurgency. They see...

Forgot to pass this along earlier. More good news.The Turkish army may move into northern Iraq if violence by Turkish-Kurdish guerrillas continues, officials said yesterday.Such a move could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States, which has repeatedly warned against unilateral action in Iraq.Actually, it isn't as grim as it seems.But the Turkish government is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police...

The subject is strategic bombing, the backdrop the unfolding crisis in the Middle East.I am reminded that the spirit of Athens lives on. Melians of the world, beware.To be fair, not everyone there advocates "the strong do what they will and the weak do what they must." Some merely believe that if you fight on the side of providence, any action becomes legitimate. Nevertheless, as articulate a set of comments as I've ever seen.Filed as: just in...

It appears George Will has joined the dark side with his WaPo column this morning. Welcome to the world of sane policy analysis George.Filed as: George Will

[UPDATED]Laura Rozen points to a Ha'aretz story that Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni indicates a willingness to accept a UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon:peaking after a meeting with a United Nations delegation headed by special envoy Vijay Nambiar, Livni said that while Israel would prefer the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south of the country, "we will consider other solutions put forward." "If there is a need to strengthen the...

In grad school, Herman Kahn was my second favorite strategic theorist (after Thomas Schelling). I still have an original edition of On Thermonuclear War with the dust jacket -- restrain your envy, my copy was marked up as I read it. In any case, Kahn is known for a number of interesting ideas, including the so-called "ladder of escalation." Essentially, Kahn's term explains gradations of conflict, from "ostensible crisis" up 40+ rungs to...

It has been a bloody week in Iraq. Today saw a particularly vicious attack in the action-reaction cycle that marks Iraq's increasingly dangerous communal violence.Masked attackers with heavy machine guns mounted on pickup trucks slaughtered at least 40 people in a crowded market area south of Baghdad on Monday, hurling grenades to blow up merchants at their counters and shooting down mothers as they fled with their children, witnesses and...

Foreign Affairs continues its roundtable on US policy towards Iraq. Today I take aim at Christopher Hitchens' contribution.Hitchens open his response by excoriating his fellow panelists for the "absence of historical dimensions" or "by its appearance only in the form of false analogy" in their contributions. What does he mean by this rather clumsy phrase?There is nothing remotely comparable here with the experience of the French in Algeria and...

Like all other frustrated scholars out there, I wanted to publish an Op-Ed, thinking I have something interesting to say about what's going on between Israel and Lebanon. I thought that I might have something to contribute-- my dissertation had a looooong chapter on the Israel - Lebanon Monitoring Group, a small organizaton set up after Israel's 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath in Lebanon. There's not a lot written about the ILMG, so I figured I...

Wretched argues the following:If Sheehan is right [that we will date WW3 to the bombing of the USS Cole] , then the Global War on Terror would have failed. A focused attack on extremism will have been supplanted by an uncontrolled clash between peoples, religions and cultures. But we are not there yet. There's still a chance, and the rulers of the Middle East are hoping that this thing can be pulled back from the brink and the fires focused on...

What Greg said. The pearls of wisdom just keep on coming this morning.Lack of intellect+misplaced faith in easy to understand analogies=advocacy of diasterous foreign policy.Filed as: Appeasement