The Duck of Minerva

If you are like me, you have been transfixed by the unfolding story on Syria, the diplomatic gambit that has forestalled an imminent military strike. Alongside this important news has been the more picayune question of a Syria intervention advocate falsely claiming her academic credentials from my alma mater. Lost in the midst of all this Syria drama is the fact that the United States Men's National Team qualified for the World Cup. In my one vaguely nationalist refrain, we are going to Brazil! Read on about all of these things... It's an open question whether the Obama administration has...

It's morning somewhere right? With military action possibly pending in Syria amidst a horrible ongoing civil war, I needed a more hopeful photo to accompany this post of news links (hence the duck and the kitten). But, the news out there is pretty grim so here are some links on Syria, the links between drought and the war in Syria, climate change and violence, and what happened to Al Gore on climate change. Aaron David Miller makes the case that Obama had to go to Congress and made a virtue out of necessity Under these circumstances, Obama has been risk-averse not because he's flawed,...

It's Syria week. Post use of chemical weapons, some sort of intervention looks more likely than not. We are conflicted. Here to help us make sense of this: The intel that suggests the Syrian regime did it, but unclear command and control George Packer on our inner dialogue about why intervention is necessary but folly James Fallows on the folly part Erica Chenoweth on the history of interventions, again emphasizing folly, here and here Jon Western says not so fast, what is this case of? Bosnia or Iraq? Or something else? Eric Voeten concurs Ian Hurd and Charli Carpenter on breaking...

It's morning somewhere, right? Here are some belated links to stories, covering Richard Haass and Syria, climate change and the IPCC 5th assessment, a lethal bat-born virus, gay rights and Russia, and the new Fukushima nuclear worry... Syria FT op-ed by Richard Haass of all people urging the president to intervene in Syria Environment Draft IPCC Fifth assessment report on climate change impacts leaks, guess what, more climate change Andrew Revkin muses that a focus on current weather and climate attribution may feed into uncertainty and inaction New study - action on short-lived greenhouse...

Sad turn of events in Egypt, a situation in which the U.S. is inextricably implicated. Not sure if there was a policy course we should have followed that would have been different. I understand the defenders of the democratic process who would have wanted Morsi to leave via the ballot box. I also am sympathetic to the claims that the Muslim Brotherhood was running the country in to a ditch. Unfortunately, the military response seems to have made things much worse. All of this suggests that democratic transitions can be bloody and unstable moments in a country's history. Here are some links...

Apologies for the delay in Thursday linkage but was a bit under the weather. It's the Texas heat, making me crazy and violent, or at least so suggests a recent empirical study in Science though it has its detractors. This week, I link to the back and forth of a major study on climate and conflict that carries out a meta-analysis of 60 studies and finds a 1 standard deviation change in variety of climate indicators leads to a 4% rise in "interpersonal violence" and a 14% rise in "intergroup" violence. "Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict", Science, Hsiang et al., 2013 More...