Initial speculation about Nord Stream reveals both the strengths and limitations of using international-relations models to make sense of unfolding events
Initial speculation about Nord Stream reveals both the strengths and limitations of using international-relations models to make sense of unfolding events
I love this tweet as it puts the usual dynamics on their head: Tip for students going off to college: study 80s/90s pop culture. Particularly Ferris Beuller, Princess Bride, Simpsons seasons 2-5....
This week is another NATO ministerial. What is that? Here's a handy guide to the basics and why NATO is run like an academic conference. What is the NAC? Nope, not these guys. The North Atlantic...
I was on twitter talking with some folks about what Canada might promise at the Warsaw Summit, with the focus on who is going to provide the troops for the four battalions that will be based in the...
Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Defense presented its latest Nuclear Posture Review Report. I haven't had a chance to read the entire document yet, but media reports have focused on a new policy declaration that is of great interest to states and scholars alike. The statement garnering the greatest attention is included in the "Executive Summary" of the NPR (p. viii): The United States will continue to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks. To that end, the United States is now prepared to strengthen its long-standing "negative security assurance" by declaring...
I'm beginning to think that a number of important people in the Obama administration must have read the Keir Lieber and Daryl Press piece in Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006, which explained burgeoning U.S. nuclear primacy, and have taken seriously the potential risks of primacy. Just more than 10 months since George W. Bush left office, the new administration in Washington has already taken a couple of important steps to reassure other states that the U.S. is trying to reduce the risks.Duck readers may recall that Bill blogged about the Lieber-Press thesis two and a half years ago -- and...
Pakistani Taliban Leader Threatens Attack on WashingtonCompellence in its purest form: a threat to inflict pain if an adversary does not alter their current behavior. Is the threat credible? It's unclear at this time, although US officials are publicly dismissing it. Other threats of late seem more credible--although the FedEx strategy is an example of deterrence, not compellence.And no, I am not morally equating FedEx and Mehsud--just pointing out examples of strategy.I haven't actually seen a study which looks at the success rate of terrorist or non-state deterrent/compellent threats...
Last week, in the much-maligned Democratic debate in Pennsylvania, Senator Hillary Clinton said that she would greatly expand the US nuclear umbrella in the Middle East: Well, in fact, George [Stephanopoulos], I think that we should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack on Israel would incur massive retaliation from the United States, but I would do the same with other countries in the region.You know, we are at a very dangerous point with Iran. The Bush policy has failed. Iran...
OK, so things are tense between Britain and Russia these days. But this breathless headline from the BBC is really over the top: "Russia warns of nuclear defence".The meat of the article is only a little less hysterical:Russia's military chief of staff has said Moscow is ready to use force, including pre-emptively and with nuclear weapons, to defend itself.Under what conditions would Russia use nuclear weapons?In a speech to a military conference broadcast on state-run cable TV, Gen Baluyevsky said there were potential threats to Russia from international terrorism or countries seeking...
Did President Bush, at his October 17, 2007, press conference, threaten the world with war? You decide: Q But you definitively believe Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon?THE PRESIDENT: I think so long -- until they suspend and/or make it clear that they -- that their statements aren't real, yeah, I believe they want to have the capacity, the knowledge, in order to make a nuclear weapon. And I know it's in the world's interest to prevent them from doing so. I believe that the Iranian -- if Iran had a nuclear weapon, it would be a dangerous threat to world peace.But this -- we got a leader...
Film #11 "Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb" (1964). We viewed it Tuesday.Readings for Thursday: Lee Butler, "The Risks of Nuclear Deterrence: From Superpowers to Rogue Leaders" National Press Club, February 2, 1998.Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, "The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006."Dr. Strangelove" is one of my all-time favorite films and its powerful 40-year old critique of American nuclear deterrence strategy continues to resonate today -- even though the cold war is over and contemporary nuclear delivery...