The buzzword of the first Trump administration was “Great Power Competition.” That was also a lie.
So much for “Great Power Competition”
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US Foreign Policy
Geopolitical Rivalry: Great for Princes, Bad for Paupers
If you’ve spent any amount of time in Washington, there’s a good chance you’ve internalized a rosier narrative of the Cold War than the actual history warrants (I certainly had). To correct...
Talking Great-Power Competition in the Heart of Empires Past
It turns out that it’s hard to write a roundup of happenings at the Duck of Minerva when there aren’t many to speak of. Much of that’s on me. What’s my excuse? Well, the kid finally contracted...
The Real Conservative Foreign Policy Debate
There’s a battle going down inside the Republican party for what conservative foreign policy ought to be. The problem is that stakeholders in the debate are misrepresenting its terms, and...
More US Foreign Policy Posts
What do new Turkish university campuses have to do with Trump’s Syria decision?
So by this point we all know the big news on Syria. Overnight, Trump announced that--after consulting with Turkish President Erdogan--the US would be pulling troops out of north Syria, giving Turkey freedom to operate. This would likely involve military actions against Kurdish forces there, which Turkey fears are coordinating with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey. This is concerning for two reasons. First, the United States had worked with these Kurdish forces to fight ISIS, so we're basically abandoning them. Second, this will basically leave ISIS detention camps unguarded, possibly letting...
Even More Assholery: Is Seeking Payment for Protection New?
This is a guest post from Paul Poast, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Earlier this spring, Poast wrote a post about the Asshole Theory of US Foreign Policy and the structural conditions that may facilitate the United States playing the role of a jerk on the international stage. In part 2, we embedded Poast's thread on President Trump's gauche offer to buy Greenland from Denmark. In part 3, Poast reflects on President Trump's talk about extracting payment from Saudi Arabia for protection in light of previous burden-sharing...
Further Reflections on Assholery: How Important is Denmark to NATO?
This is a guest post from Paul Poast, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Earlier this spring, Poast wrote a post about the Asshole Theory of US Foreign Policy and the structural conditions that may facilitate the United States playing the role of a jerk on the international stage. In light of President Trump's overtures to buy Greenland from Denmark, Poast wrote a thread on Twitter about Denmark's importance to NATO, suggesting why President Trump's suggestion might be considered an asshole move. What follows is an embedded thread...
If you mention the evangelical delegation to Saudi Arabia, I’d have to ask which one
The other day, Emily McFarlan Miller--a journalist with Religion News Service--noted a sense of deja vu. The AP had an article on a delegation of US evangelicals who travelled to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mohammed bin Salman, the country's Crown Prince (and effective ruler). The deja vu was because there was a similar delegation--with some of the same individuals--last year, which she wrote about at the time. These repeated visits, and the visitors' response to the conservative Islamic Kingdom, are surprising, and may represent a shift in how evangelical elites view Saudi Arabia. The 2018...
Wait…what about Iran?
Remember this summer, when we were about to go to war with Iran? Iran seized an oil tanker passing through the Persian Gulf. Iran also shot down a US drone. The United States responded by shooting down an Iranian drone flying near a US ship, and nearly launching an air strike against Iran. The United States also expanded sanctions on Iran. With Trump's behavior becoming...unpredictable, and hawkish advisers like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo seemingly ascendant in the Administration, some sort of military clash appeared likely. But at some point this likely event kind of...faded away. It's...
Will Republican voters punish Trump for a trade war with China? It depends.
This is a guest post from Shana Gadarian and Dan McDowell, both Associate Professors at the Maxwell School at Syracuse University. Earlier this month, after Chinese authorities reportedly backtracked on a set of economic reform promises as part of ongoing trade discussions, President Trump announced that existing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods would increase from 10% to 25%. China responded with new tariff hikes of its own on American products. The costs of the escalating trade war are most acute in rural areas where Trump has enjoyed strong political support. While it is possible...
Why Do Opinion Leaders Misjudge Public Attitudes?
Last week, Dina Smeltz, Jordan Tama, and I had a piece in the Monkey Cage on the results of our 2018 survey of 588 foreign policy opinion leaders. We found that these opinion leaders misestimated public attitudes on (1) US engagement in the world, (2) support for trade, (3) support for military intervention, and (4) support for immigration. I did a thread on the results, which I'll summarize below, but I wanted to follow up with some thoughts based on a thoughtful critique from Ken Schultz that focused on our finding that elites thought the public less supportive of military intervention...
Americans Oppose Killing Civilians. Reports Saying Otherwise Are Wrong.
Three reasons why you shouldn’t worry too much about the blood-thirstiness of your fellow Americans.