by Dan Nexon | 11 Nov 2011 |
Literally (Abstract): We define a causal mechanism as a process in which a causal variable of interest, i.e., a treatment variable, influences an outcome. The identification of a causal mechanism requires the specification of an intermediate variable or a mediator that lies on the causal pathway between the treatment and outcome variables. Although qualitative studies often employ the method of process tracing, quantitative investigation of...
by Brian Rathbun | 10 Nov 2011 |
Last night Texas Governor Rick Perry, formerly for some reason regarded as a serious contender for the Republican nomination for President, embarrassed himself by being unable to remember the third department of the federal government he would eliminate upon being elected. This has caused a big media stir about whether his campaign is doomed, with the narrative being whether someone with such a bad short-term memory can be the leader of the...
by PM | 10 Nov 2011 |
The horror, the horror What the hell happened to Europe?There's still a chance that the EU may be pulled back from the [metaphor], whether that metaphor be an "abyss", a "chasm", or "the flames". But it's beginning to look a lot like the end of Europe-as-we-knew-it.Much as the fall of the Soviet Union simultaneously showed that most Soviet experts were unable to predict the central event of the twentieth century, so too will the fall of the...
by Rodger Payne | 7 Nov 2011 |
The entire bit is good, but the really good part begins about 3:30 into this video from last Thursday's "Colbert Report."The Colbert Report Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive"Invest in Europe, where culture, history and fun are always having a three-way."
When I was young (ca. 2001), I was very much in Matt Drudge's target demographic, and for various reasons (I like tabloids, I like celebrity gossip, and I like to keep up with the echo chamber without subscribing to Fox News), I've stayed a loyal Drudge reader for years.Drudge is a window into the right-wing's id. And so it's always amazing to me to see things like this:First, there was a time when being a Republican meant celebrating your...
by Jon Western | 6 Nov 2011 |
This is a guest post from Idean Salehyan, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas and the author of Rebels Without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics (Cornell Univ. Press, 2009).Reports have emerged that Turkey is supporting a group of military defectors from Syria, which have organized under the name, the ‘Free Syrian Army’ or FSA. Led by Riyad al-Asad, a former Colonel in Bashar Assad’s...
by Steve Saideman | 2 Nov 2011 | Featured
Twitter inspired a conversation today with Starbuck about Eliot Cohen, who wrote a very important book on civil-military relation, Supreme Command. It features case studies where civilian leaders over-rode military officers, focusing on Lincoln, Churchill, Clemenceau and Ben-Gurion. Clemenceau had said that war was too important to be left to the generals, and I agree. I found Cohen's book very persuasive despite:the extreme selection bias:...
by Brian Rathbun | 1 Nov 2011 |
If you stumble upon a political scientist unwittingly, perhaps mid-conversation at a party, you might assume they are a great humanitarian or an artist. Who else would make constant references to “my work,” with the implication that what he or she does if of enormous social and political consequence? You will be puzzled. Certainly no one wearing Dockers can be pushing the boundaries of social convention. And if this person is such an agent of...
by Jay Ulfelder | 1 Nov 2011 |
On October 23, Libya's Transitional National Council (TNC) declared the country liberated and the transition to a post-Gaddafi state officially underway. Over the following week, we've seen the first of what I expect will be many stories about tensions and conflict among the groups over whom the TNC is claiming authority. Here's the opening to one such story, from today's Washington Post:Libya has emerged from its civil war with more than 300...
by Dan Nexon | 1 Nov 2011 |
At about 13.10 GOP poll-leader Herman Cain reveals the shocking news that the People's Republic of China is seeking nuclear-weapons capability. Watch Monday, October 31, 2011 on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.Next interview: Cain discusses the threat posed by UK, French, and Russian nuclear proliferation. George Will swoons.
by Kate Weaver | 31 Oct 2011 |
I've been a very bad (lame) duck of late, but for good reason. On top of many other duties, I am teaching a new graduate seminar this semester on Global Economic Governance with some very smart and fun students at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas. Each week we start the class by digging into the current news, which lately has been a veritable feast for IPE junkies. We've had particular fun with the Occupy Wall Street...
by Rodger Payne | 28 Oct 2011 |
Last week, at University of Bristol, I gave a talk called "The Future of World Order" to the student International Affairs Society. It was a speculative lecture, based on my 17 years directing the Grawemeyer Award (for Ideas Improving World Order) more than my scholarship per se. I warned the audience from the start of two personal biases: (1) I am an optimist; and (2) I don't really put much stock in specific predictions. I tried to stick to...